Hurricane Olivia’s forecast track aims for Hawaii

Archived series of Central Pacific Infrared Images

At 11 p.m. HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olivia was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 131.2 West. Olivia is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue through Saturday. A gradual turn toward the west is expected Saturday night or Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Olivia is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A slow weakening trend is expected through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).

The current annular pattern indicates that Hurricane Olivia should weaken more slowly than indicated by guidance, even though the cyclone will be moving over slightly cooler sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of about 25.5 deg C by 36 hours. The low shear environment that the cyclone will be embedded in should help to offset some of the negative effects of the cooler waters. After that time, Olivia will move back over slightly warmer waters and remain in a low shear environment, so a little leveling off in the weakening process is forecast until 96 hours. On day 5, however, southwesterly vertical wind shear of 15-20 kt is expected to induce more significant weakening at that time. The official intensity forecast is similar to, but higher than, the consensus models, and more closely follows a blend of the dynamical models.

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Actions to take whenever a tropical storm or hurricane nears Hawaii

All of Hawaii’s citizens should know what to do during a hurricane, tropical storm watches and warnings. Watches and warnings are prepared for the Hawaiian Islands by the National Weather Service Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu. When watches and warnings are issued, people should closely monitor the Internet, radio, TV, or NOAA Weather Radio for official bulletins of the storm’s progress and instructions from civil defense authorities. Jim Weyman, director of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, said, “Although you and your family may have never experienced a hurricane, don’t be complacent! It’s not a matter of if a hurricane will occur, but when one will occur. All of the Hawaiian Islands are at risk for a hurricane and we should all know what actions to take.”

For the Central Pacific Ocean a Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watch means hurricane/tropical storm conditions are possible in the specified area of the Watch, usually within 48 hours.

When a Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watch is issued:

For the Central Pacific Ocean a Hurricane/Tropical Storm Warning means hurricane/tropical storm conditions are expected in the specified area of the Warning, usually within 36 hours.

When a Hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning is issued:

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) issues tropical cyclone warnings, watches, advisories, discussions, and statements for all tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific from 140 Degrees West Longitude to the International Dateline. The season officially begins on June 1 and ends on November 30. However, tropical cyclones can occur at any time. The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Honolulu activates the CPHC when: (1) a tropical cyclone moves into the Central Pacific from the Eastern Pacific, (2) a tropical cyclone forms in the Central Pacific, or (3) a tropical cyclone moves into the Central Pacific from the West.

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