At 11 p.m. HST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 137.0 West. Lane is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a motion between west and west-northwest with a small decrease in forward speed is expected during the entire forecast period. Lane is forecast to cross into the central Pacific basin later Saturday (Aug 18).
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Lane is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible today or Sunday, but a gradual weakening is forecast thereafter.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).
National Weather Service Discussion
The satellite presentation of Lane has improved significantly during the past several hours with a distinct eye surrounded by very deep convection and symmetric outflow. T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB are 6.0 on the Dvorak scale, and on this basis, the initial intensity has been increased to 115 kt. The hurricane is moving within an environment of light shear, and this should allow some additional strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, guidance suggests that a slight weakening should begin perhaps to a modest increase in shear. The NHC forecast does not weaken Lane as fast as indicated by the intensity guidance.
Lane continues to move toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 14 kt, steered by the trade winds south of the subtropical high. Since the steering pattern is not expected to change much, this general motion should continue during the next 3 to 5 days. An expected weakening of the trades should result in a small decrease in the hurricane’s forward speed. Track models are tightly clustered during the first 72 hours, and this increases the confidence in the forecast. After that time, the model agreement is not as good, resulting in a wider guidance envelope bounded by the GFS to the north and ECMWF to the south. The NHC forecast follows very closely the multi-model ensemble and the corrected consensus HCCA which are in the middle of the envelope. No significant changes were made to the previous NHC forecast
Public should prepare for Tropical Cyclone Lane
HONOLULU — HI-EMA recommends residents and visitors take the following actions to prepare for any possible hurricane or tropical cyclone: