MEDIA RELEASE

The Tarrance Group has announced the following findings from its latest survey of “likely” voters in Hawaii’s race for governor.

The Tarrance Group was commissioned by the Duke Aiona for Governor campaign to conduct a telephone survey of N=600 registered voters who are likely to participate in the election this November. A random sample of this type is likely to yield a margin of error of +4.1% in 95 out of 100 cases. Responses to the survey were gathered June 13-15.

According to the Tarrance Group, “When we compare how Duke Aiona performs against either of his potential opponents in a general election for governor, we find that in both cases the race is too close to call. Indeed, both ballot results are within the margin of error of the survey. But it is hard to ignore the fact that Duke Aiona actually leads Mufi Hannemann (+4) and is not very far behind with Neil Abercrombie (-3).”

For those familiar with the typically late-breaking elections that take place in Hawaii, this positive position for the Aiona candidacy seems to have occurred early in the process.

This may suggest that Democrats – at least the two candidates vying for the nomination to run against the lieutenant governor – are not enjoying the position of strength typically enjoyed by their political party at this juncture in the race.

Ballot Comparison

Duke Aiona 43%
Undecided 11%
Neil Abercrombie 46%
Net -3%

Duke Aiona 43%
Undecided 18%
Mufi Hannemann 39%
Net +4%

Unlike Linda Lingle’s first election as governor eight years ago, Aiona is a very well known candidate. As lieutenant governor, 97% have heard of him. More importantly, he maintains a very positive image going into the election. Sixty-two percent (62%) are favorable toward Aiona and 27% are unfavorable.

Image Comparison

* Duke Aiona
% Aware – 97
% Favorable – 62
% Unfavorable – 27

* Mufi Hannemann
% Aware – 99
% Favorable – 56
% Unfavorable – 36

* Neil Abercrombie
% Aware – 99
% Favorable – 54
% Unfavorable – 39

“As I have always said, whether we’re up or down, the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day,” Lt. Governor Duke Aiona said. “I’m going to put my support for Hawaii’s working families and small businesses front and center in this grassroots campaign, and by working together, we’re going to ensure balance, integrity and accountability in state government.”