Categorized | News

Felicia downgraded to category one hurricane and forecast to weaken further

20090807_felicia-track19

HURRICANE FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 08 2009

…FELICIA BEGINNING TO WEAKEN…

INTERESTS IN HAWAII SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FELICIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 139.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1030 MILES…1660 KM…EAST OF HILO HAWAII.

FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH…22 KM/HR …BUT A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH…150 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELICIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…185 KM.

HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 08 2009

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OBSERVED EARLIER IS LIKELY NOW OVER…AND A GRADUAL…WEAKENING SEEMS TO HAVE COMMENCED. THIS IS EVIDENCED BY CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE BEEN WARMING…AND A NOTABLE DRY SLOT THAT HAS BEEN ROTATING NORTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER…FELICIA HAS BEEN EXHIBITING MANY OF THE COMMON CHARACTERISTICS OF AN ANNULAR HURRICANE…INCLUDING A FAIRLY UNIFORM RING OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE CENTER AND A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE FEATURES OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA. ON THE BASIS OF THE DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 4.5 AND 5.0…THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 80 KT THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12…BUT THE LAST FEW SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE HEADING MAY ACTUALLY BE EVEN MORE WESTWARD. FELICIA IS IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE…WHICH SHOULD CAUSE IT TO GAIN LITTLE LATITUDE BEYOND 24 HOURS. A WEAKER FELICIA LATER IN THE FORECAST SHOULD CONTINUE ON A MOSTLY DUE-WESTWARD COURSE WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. OUTSIDE OF THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN MODEL…WHICH SHOW A MORE NORTHERN TRACK…THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS SCENARIO AND IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A TRACK PASSING CLOSE TO THE ISLAND OF HAWAII JUST AFTER 72 HOUR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN AN EFFORT TO MINIMIZE THE CONTRIBUTION BY THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL OUTPUT.

FELICIA HAS BEEN MOVING OVER COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS…BUT WATER TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED TO SLOWLY WARM ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER…WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ABRUPTLY INCREASE AROUND 48 HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CLOSED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO…FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATED WEAKENING IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR. SHOULD FELICIA ASSUME A MOTION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK…IT WOULD LIKELY ENCOUNTER A LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST. ON THE OTHER HAND…A MOTION NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD LEAD FELICIA INTO EVEN HIGHER SHEAR AND WOULD RESULT IN A FASTER WEAKENING.

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
Hurricane Categories Explained: www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.sht…

Weather forecasts of all the islands: www.prh.noaa.gov/pr/hnl

Central Pacific Infrared Images

20090808-0600UTC_fulldisc

Satellite image taken at Aug 8 at 0600 UTC. Images courtesy of NOAA-NASA GOES Project Click on image above for full earth image.

ACTIONS TO TAKE WHEN A HURRICANE NEARS HAWAII
hurricane-preparedness-tumbAll of Hawaii’s citizens should know what to do during hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings. Watches and warnings are prepared for the Hawaiian Islands by the National Weather Service Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu. When watches and warnings are issued, people should closely monitor radio, TV, or NOAA Weather Radio for official bulletins of the storm’s progress and instructions from civil defense authorities. Jim Weyman, director of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, said, “Although you and your family may have never experienced a hurricane, don’t be complacent! It’s not a matter of if a hurricane will occur, but when one will occur. All of the Hawaiian Islands are at risk for a hurricane and we should all know what actions to take.”

For the Central Pacific Ocean starting with the 2009 hurricane season, a Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watch means hurricane/tropical storm conditions are possible in the specificed area of the Watch, usually within 48 hours.

When a Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watch is issued:

  • Fuel and service family vehicles.
  • Prepare to cover all windows and door openings with boards, shutters or other shielding materials.
  • Check food and water supplies. Have clean, air-tight containers on hand to store at least two weeks of drinking water (14 gallons per person), and stock up on canned provisions. Keep a small cooler with frozen gel packs handy for packing refrigerated items.
  • Check prescription medicines – obtain at least 10 days to 2 weeks supply.
  • Stock up on extra batteries for radios, flashlights, and lanterns.
  • Store and secure outdoor lawn furniture and other loose, lightweight objects, such as garbage cans and garden tools.
  • Check and replenish first-aid supplies.
  • Have on hand an extra supply of cash.

For the Central Pacific Ocean starting with the 2009 hurricane season, a Hurricane/Tropical Storm Warning means hurricane/tropical storm conditions are expected in the specified area of the Warning, usually within 36 hours.

When a Hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning is issued:

  • Follow instructions issued by civil defense. Leave immediately if ordered to do so.
  • Complete preparation activities, such as boarding up windows and storing loose objects.
  • Evacuate areas that might be affected by storm surge flooding. If evacuating, leave early.
  • Notify neighbors and a family member outside of the warned area of your evacuation plans.

Hawaii County Civil Defense Huricane Preparedness Guide: co.hawaii.hi.us/cd/hpg/main.ht…

The Hawaii Chapter of the American Red Cross has Hurricane Preparedness Guide

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

 

 

Become a fan on facebook

 

 

Quantcast
%d bloggers like this: