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Felicia weakens to category 3 hurricane as it moves to cooler waters towards Hawaii

Felicia is weakening with maximum sustained winds near 115 mph with higher gusts and is moving towards Hawaii at 10 mph. Weakening is forecast as Felicia moves over cooler waters.

20090806_felicia-track15

HURRICANE FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 07 2009

…FELICIA WEAKENING…

AT 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 134.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1365 MILES…2195 KM…EAST OF HILO HAWAII AND ABOUT 1630 MILES… 2625 KM…WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH…17 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY…WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST FORECAST ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH…185 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS FELICIA MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES…65 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES…220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB…28.35 INCHES.

…SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION…
LOCATION…17.5N 134.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…115 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…960 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT.

HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 07 2009

INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH FELICIA HAS SUBSTANTIALLY DETERIORATED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. MOREOVER…CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY AND THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS BECOME ASYMMETRIC. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED TO 5.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE BEING REDUCED TO 100 KT ON THIS ADVISORY…THOUGH THIS MAY BE SOMEWHAT GENEROUS GIVEN RECENT TRENDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/9…THE SAME MOTION THAT HAS PERSISTED WITH LITTLE DEVIATION FOR THE LAST 48 HOURS. AT THE MOMENT…FELICIA IS TRACKING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LYING NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. HOWEVER… THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS STRONGER SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND CAUSES FELICIA TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THEREAFTER…GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A WEAKER FELICIA…LIKELY A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM…BEING STEERED WESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THIS CYCLE BEYOND 24 HOURS…AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.

FELICIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO…WITH THE MAIN CONTROLLING FACTOR ON INTENSITY LIKELY TO BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE PATH OF THE CYCLONE. BEYOND 48 HOURS…INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR…ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NOTED ABOVE…SHOULD ACCELERATE THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND IN SPITE OF MARGINALLY WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WEST OF 150W. SHOULD FELICIA MOVE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 48 HOURS…THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT THE RATE OF WEAKENING COULD BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST.

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
Hurricane Categories Explained: www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.sht…

Central Pacific Infrared Images

Satellite image taken on Aug 7 at 0600 UTC. Images courtesy of NOAA-NASA GOES Project Click on image above for full earth image.

Satellite image taken on Aug 7 at 0600 UTC. Images courtesy of NOAA-NASA GOES Project Click on image above for full earth image.

ACTIONS TO TAKE WHEN A HURRICANE NEARS HAWAII
hurricane-preparedness-tumbAll of Hawaii’s citizens should know what to do during hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings. Watches and warnings are prepared for the Hawaiian Islands by the National Weather Service Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu. When watches and warnings are issued, people should closely monitor radio, TV, or NOAA Weather Radio for official bulletins of the storm’s progress and instructions from civil defense authorities. Jim Weyman, director of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, said, “Although you and your family may have never experienced a hurricane, don’t be complacent! It’s not a matter of if a hurricane will occur, but when one will occur. All of the Hawaiian Islands are at risk for a hurricane and we should all know what actions to take.”

For the Central Pacific Ocean starting with the 2009 hurricane season, a Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watch means hurricane/tropical storm conditions are possible in the specificed area of the Watch, usually within 48 hours.

When a Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watch is issued:

  • Fuel and service family vehicles.
  • Prepare to cover all windows and door openings with boards, shutters or other shielding materials.
  • Check food and water supplies. Have clean, air-tight containers on hand to store at least two weeks of drinking water (14 gallons per person), and stock up on canned provisions. Keep a small cooler with frozen gel packs handy for packing refrigerated items.
  • Check prescription medicines – obtain at least 10 days to 2 weeks supply.
  • Stock up on extra batteries for radios, flashlights, and lanterns.
  • Store and secure outdoor lawn furniture and other loose, lightweight objects, such as garbage cans and garden tools.
  • Check and replenish first-aid supplies.
  • Have on hand an extra supply of cash.

For the Central Pacific Ocean starting with the 2009 hurricane season, a Hurricane/Tropical Storm Warning means hurricane/tropical storm conditions are expected in the specified area of the Warning, usually within 36 hours.

When a Hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning is issued:

  • Follow instructions issued by civil defense. Leave immediately if ordered to do so.
  • Complete preparation activities, such as boarding up windows and storing loose objects.
  • Evacuate areas that might be affected by storm surge flooding. If evacuating, leave early.
  • Notify neighbors and a family member outside of the warned area of your evacuation plans.

The Hawaii Chapter of the American Red Cross has Hurricane Preparedness Guide

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Oct 22, 2014 / 5:15 pm

 

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